Jessica Pegula has been shaped by two very different tests in Indian Wells, and the lesson she took from them is the one that will matter most on Thursday.
She lost to Coco Gauff in three sets, 6-4, 6-7, 6-2, then recovered to beat Marta Kostyuk 6-2, 7-5. Speaking to Sky Sports, Pegula said the two players share a few traits when they face her, even if the tactics differ. Gauff tends to sit deeper and make her opponent work for everything. Kostyuk, in Pegula's reading, is more likely to look for aggression.
That difference explains Pegula's approach. Against Gauff, she said, she pressed too hard at times, which is exactly what Gauff is so good at provoking. Against Kostyuk she chose restraint, stayed patient in the rallies and served better.
The second set was the tighter test. Pegula said she was 1-0 up, 30-0, and then lost points she felt she should have controlled, failing to land first serves. She was down 4-5 and serving at 0-15 when she told herself she would not give up the set. Her own description of the match was simple: a lot of pep talk, and a reminder that sets matter more in this format.
That reminder has practical weight. Pegula currently sits third in the group because she trails Gauff on head-to-head, though she is ahead on set and game percentage. The top two qualify for the semi-finals. A straight-sets win over Linda Nosková in the final group match would put Pegula top of the group. A three-set win would leave her second, which is still enough. Her route can also survive a loss if Gauff loses to Kostyuk, but Pegula is not waiting on that outcome.
The immediate question is therefore not whether Pegula can read Nosková, but whether she can keep the patience she found against Kostyuk without drifting into passivity. If she does, the group is still hers to decide.
