Latvia Holds Its Breath After Exit Polls

Latvia's ruling party, United List, led by Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, was projected to finish first in the country's parliamentary election, according to an exit poll published by public broadcaster LSM. The 35.6% projection would place the centrist party ahead of its competitors, but the exit poll also pointed to meaningful gains by populist forces — a pattern that has complicated government formation across Central and Eastern Europe in recent electoral cycles.

Exit polls are projections, not results, and Latvian coalition arithmetic will matter as much as vote share. A party finishing first with just over a third of the vote still faces the task of assembling a working majority in the Saeima, Latvia's 100-seat parliament. If populist parties have advanced as the LSM poll suggests, Kulbergs' options for coalition partners may be narrower or more politically costly than his vote share implies.

Latvia sits on NATO's eastern flank, sharing a border with Russia, and the composition of its next government carries weight beyond domestic policy. Whether the projected centrist lead holds in final results — and which parties cross the threshold needed for parliamentary seats — remains the open question that the night's count will determine.