UK Regulator Links Illegal Betting Sites to Higher Problem Gambling Scores

Almost half of the UK players the Gambling Commission studied on illegal betting sites scored in the highest risk band for problem gambling, against 6% of those using licensed sites. According to Casino.org's account of the regulator's new research, 45% of illegal-site players scored eight or more on the Problem Gambling Severity Index. Another 17% scored between three and seven, compared with 9% of licensed customers.

The headline comparison is not the only finding that matters. Of people with repeated illegal transactions, 91% also gambled with licensed operators. The 122 people with at least two detected illegal transactions averaged 24.8 licensed bets in the month before their first illegal one and 23.7 in the month after. The regulator concluded that illegal gambling sits alongside regulated play rather than replacing it. On that evidence, blocking unlicensed sites would not remove these customers from the licensed market, which is where many of them are already active and where affordability checks and intervention could reach them.

The method has limits, and the regulator flags them. The study analysed 157.2 million banking transactions from about 38,000 people, using financial data collected by YouGov. It identified 3,426 transactions by 179 people that it believed involved illegal operators. Banking records missed cryptocurrency payments, so the Commission said the findings cannot size Britain's illegal market. It also said the data do not establish whether illegal gambling causes greater harm.

Analysis: the direction of cause is the open question. If existing harm pushes people towards unlicensed sites, the stronger policy lever is early identification and affordability controls inside the licensed market. If the unlicensed sites themselves increase harm, enforcement and payment blocking carry more weight. The report, as described here, does not decide between those readings. The Betting and Gaming Council has separately warned in August that UK black-market Premier League betting could reach £1 billion by the 2027/28 season, a forecast from an industry body rather than a regulator measurement.