The acknowledgment is narrow, but it is real. At a press briefing in Beijing, foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said China “is in communication with relevant parties regarding a meeting between the three heads of state.” That confirms the talks exist. It does not confirm that the meeting is settled, what form it would take, or whether anyone expects more than a carefully managed appearance.
According to The Independent, the gathering would take place this month on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen if it happens at all. Even at this early stage, the likely attraction is fairly obvious: the image. Sun Yun of the Stimson Center told the paper, “I think it will happen. The question is the format and the content,” adding that “China wants the image but not the costs.”
That sounds like a sharper description of the situation than the usual summit-pageantry language. A three-leader frame featuring China’s president, the U.S. president and Russia’s president would be historic on its face, even if the substance underneath is thin or nonexistent. Craig Singleton of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies told The Independent it may amount to little more than a photo opportunity. The phrase feels almost dismissive, but in diplomacy photographs are often the product.
The problem is that the interests do not line up neatly enough to suggest some grand negotiating session is waiting in the wings. The Independent reported that Trump has said he would be interested in meeting Xi and Putin to discuss nuclear arms controls. Putin, by contrast, is described in the report as focused on talking about the war in Ukraine without Kyiv at the table. Sun said China would not engage in talks on arms controls or on Ukraine or Iran beyond its standard line that peace matters and wars should end.
So the event China has now confirmed is not a breakthrough. It is a discussion about a possible meeting whose significance may rest less on policy than on staging. That does not make it trivial. Beijing is hosting the APEC leaders summit, and a trilateral image of this kind would be one of the most choreographed moments available to it.
The wider U.S.-China backdrop is hardly frictionless. The Independent reported that U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, in a video call with Chinese vice premier He Lifeng, urged Beijing to take “concrete actions to fully implement its past commitments,” especially on agricultural purchases, rare earths and critical minerals. Xinhua, also cited by The Independent, said the two sides had in-depth and constructive exchanges and that China raised concerns about U.S. restrictive economic and trade measures.
For now, the useful fact is the one Beijing put on the record itself: China is discussing the meeting with the relevant parties. Everything more dramatic than that still belongs to the realm of possibility, choreography and guesswork.
Dua Mifsud
Alex de Valletta
Sophia Borg