BofA sees $120 oil if Iran strikes again

Bank of America’s Francisco Blanch said oil could average about $120 a barrel for the next few months if Iran resumes attacks on infrastructure in the region, according to Bloomberg Television.

That is a conditional call, not a price forecast for oil under all scenarios, and the condition matters. Blanch, the bank’s head of commodities and derivatives research, framed the level around a specific escalation risk after US President Donald Trump said he was weighing either further attacks or a return to peace talks with Tehran, Bloomberg reported.

For markets, the useful number is not just $120. It is the gap between a baseline shaped by supply, demand and inventories, and a conflict premium tied to the possibility that physical energy infrastructure could be hit again. Oil traders have a habit of pricing fear faster than they price barrels.

The limit of the claim is equally plain. Bloomberg’s summary does not include Bank of America’s central-case oil view absent renewed strikes, nor does it say which benchmark crude Blanch was discussing. That leaves the warning as what it is: an escalation scenario from a major bank strategist, not proof that disruption is coming or that prices will stay there if they do.