Markets Rally on Iran Peace Deal Hopes

Brent crude tumbled below $100 per barrel for the first time in weeks as global markets surged on mounting optimism that the United States and Iran are nearing a peace agreement. The potential deal could reopen oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, ending a conflict that has disrupted global trade for nearly 10 weeks.

Japan's Nikkei 225 hit a fresh record high as markets reopened after the holiday break, with technology stocks leading the charge. Asian equities rallied hard, outpacing war-related risks as artificial intelligence investments continued their momentum. European stocks opened higher, extending a global equity rally that has defied geopolitical tensions.

The commodity complex reflected the shifting sentiment. Copper climbed for a fourth consecutive day, rising alongside other risk assets as Iran evaluates President Trump's latest proposal. Oil majors benefited from the volatility. Shell reported stronger-than-expected first-quarter earnings, with trading profits boosted by elevated energy prices and supply disruptions.

Central banks remain cautious despite market optimism. Malaysia held its benchmark rate steady for a fifth meeting, citing Middle East risks to growth. Norway's Norges Bank raised rates, warning that the regional conflict creates "substantial uncertainty" about the economic outlook. The European Central Bank kept its three key rates unchanged at its April 30 meeting.

US economic data provided mixed signals. Private payrolls rose 109,000 in April, beating expectations and suggesting labor market stability. This reduces Federal Reserve pressure to cut interest rates aggressively. However, earnings season in Europe masks tougher times ahead as companies face challenges meeting profit expectations amid ongoing geopolitical disruption.

Capital markets showed signs of normalization. Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund launched its first dollar bond sale since the Iran conflict began, signaling Gulf issuers' return to public markets. The multi-tranche offering marks renewed investor confidence in regional debt.

Stockholm emerged as a bright spot for equity issuance. Chipmaker Silex Microsystems surged on its Nasdaq Stockholm debut after raising 2 billion Swedish kronor ($220 million). The successful IPO highlights Nordic markets' resilience and growing reputation as a startup hub.

Shipping costs remain elevated despite diplomatic progress. Maersk warned that the Iran conflict's impact will intensify in coming months as supply chain disruptions translate into customer price increases. The shipping giant reported additional uncertainty layers affecting global trade routes.

The convergence of potential peace progress, robust corporate earnings, and continued AI investment enthusiasm has created a powerful market cocktail. However, central bank caution and supply chain warnings suggest volatility may persist even if diplomatic breakthroughs materialize.