Crypto Bill: Senate Vote Splits the Market in Two
The Clarity Act, if passed, would establish the first comprehensive U.
The odds of U.S. crypto market structure legislation clearing the Senate shifted sharply on prediction markets, with bettors on both Kalshi and Polymarket pushing probability estimates meaningfully higher ahead of the chamber's vote on the Clarity Act, according to CoinDesk. The move was enough to split crypto markets from the broader equity selloff — Bitcoin and Ethereum held ground even as chip stocks dropped and the Dow slid on a combination of AI sector warnings and rising oil prices driven by Houthi activity in the Red Sea.
The Clarity Act, if passed, would establish the first comprehensive U.S. legal framework for digital assets, defining which tokens fall under SEC jurisdiction and which belong to the CFTC. That distinction matters enormously to exchanges, issuers, and the institutional capital that has been waiting on the sidelines for exactly this kind of regulatory clarity before committing at scale.
Per Bloomberg, rate-hike pressure across the G7 is adding a further layer of tension — a tighter monetary environment has historically compressed risk appetite in crypto, and the Senate vote lands in a week when central bank decisions could move the goalposts again regardless of what legislators do.
Prediction market enthusiasm has run ahead of legislative reality before. The bill still faces significant procedural hurdles and no guaranteed path to the House. But the signal from Kalshi and Polymarket is the clearest bet-money expression yet that Washington is closer to a crypto framework than it has ever been — and markets are pricing that possibility with unusual seriousness.
*By Isla Camilleri, Global Affairs & Lifestyle Editor*
