Goldman's Alarm: Oil Has a Number, It's $120
Goldman Sachs has warned that Brent crude oil could surpass $120 a barrel if military pressure on the Strait of Hormuz continues, with prices already on course to breach $100 for the first time since July, according to reporting from The Independent.
Goldman's Alarm: Oil Has a Number, It's $120
Goldman Sachs has warned that Brent crude oil could surpass $120 a barrel if military pressure on the Strait of Hormuz continues, with prices already on course to breach $100 for the first time since July, according to reporting from The Independent.
The strait — roughly 33 kilometres wide at its narrowest point — carries approximately a fifth of the world's daily oil supply. It is not an abstract chokepoint. When Iran or its proxies signal intent to interfere with transit, traders do not wait for confirmation. They price in the risk immediately, and right now they are pricing in a great deal of it.
Goldman's figure is not a prediction so much as a boundary marker: this is what the ceiling looks like if diplomacy fails and tanker traffic slows. The bank has not said that scenario is likely — only that it is calculable, which in financial terms is almost the same thing.
For Europe, still adjusting to energy costs reshaped by three years of Ukraine-related volatility, a return to triple-digit oil carries consequences that go beyond the pump. Inflation expectations, interest rate trajectories, household budgets — all of it moves with crude. The ECB, which has spent considerable political capital steering the eurozone back toward stability, would face a decision it has been hoping to avoid.
In Valletta, fuel prices are already a quiet grievance. A barrel at $120 would make it considerably louder.
*— Isla Camilleri, Global Affairs & Lifestyle Editor*
