Iran's Hormuz Gambit: Trump May Blink First
A deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint through which roughly 20 percent of the world's traded oil passes — is close to finalisation, according to Iranian officials cited by The Guardian, with Oman serving as the principal mediator.
Iran's Hormuz Gambit: Trump May Blink First
A deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint through which roughly 20 percent of the world's traded oil passes — is close to finalisation, according to Iranian officials cited by The Guardian, with Oman serving as the principal mediator. Under the proposed terms, Tehran would retain control of inbound traffic through the strait, a concession that analysts say effectively rewards Iran for the months-long standoff that has deepened a global economic crisis and pushed energy prices to levels not seen since 2022.
The political difficulty for Donald Trump is considerable. The White House has spent months framing the Hormuz confrontation as a pressure campaign against Tehran, but according to experts speaking to The Independent, the emerging agreement would see Trump accept core Iranian demands in order to end a conflict that has grown deeply unpopular with American consumers bearing the cost at the pump. A president who entered the standoff promising maximum leverage may exit it having granted maximum concession.
What makes this harder to paper over is the timeline. The US and Iran have been fighting over the strait for months. The economic damage — to shipping, to allied economies, to the credibility of American deterrence in the Gulf — has already been done. Oman, the quiet archipelago of diplomats, has once again proved more useful than a carrier group.
The deal is not signed. But the direction of travel is clear, and it does not point toward Washington.
