Kraken's IPO journey has been one of the more tortured in recent fintech history. The company has been IPO-ready, in the conventional sense, for several years. The barriers were not financial — they were regulatory.

The DOJ investigation, which centred on allegations that Kraken facilitated transactions with sanctioned entities, created the kind of legal uncertainty that makes underwriters nervous. That investigation was resolved in 2023 with a settlement. The reputational tail has diminished.

The more significant change is the regulatory environment itself. The SEC under Gary Gensler treated cryptocurrency exchanges as securities violators by default. The new administration has taken a materially different posture — several enforcement actions have been dropped, crypto-specific legislation is advancing in Congress, and the SEC has signalled a more permissive approach to exchange registration and custody.

Coinbase (COIN) is the benchmark. It has been public since 2021 and has traded in a wide range that closely tracks Bitcoin's price. At Bitcoin near its highs in mid-2026, Coinbase is trading well above its IPO price. Kraken investors are watching.

The NinjaTrader acquisition in 2024 added futures trading capability and a different revenue stream — one that is less correlated with crypto prices and more correlated with trading volume generally. This diversification helps the IPO story.

The FreeMalta read: The regulatory window is open. The question is whether the window stays open long enough to list at a price that satisfies Kraken's investors. Crypto cyclicality is the risk. If Bitcoin corrects significantly before the roadshow, the IPO gets pulled.