The Waymo story is one of the longest-running in Silicon Valley. Google began working on self-driving cars in 2009, when the technology seemed impossible. By 2016, the project had become Waymo, a separate Alphabet subsidiary. By 2024, it was operating commercial robotaxi services in multiple US cities with real passengers paying real fares.

The question of whether Waymo will ever be a public company has been asked at every Alphabet earnings call for years. The answer has consistently been: not now, but eventually. The commercial traction that emerged in 2024 and accelerated through 2025 has made eventually feel more imminent.

The thesis for a Waymo spinoff is straightforward. Alphabet's conglomerate structure means Waymo's value is opaque — it is absorbed into a parent company worth $2 trillion, and the market does not separately price the autonomous vehicle business. A spinoff or IPO would allow the market to value Waymo independently, potentially unlocking significant value for Alphabet shareholders.

At $45 billion — the valuation from a 2024 funding round that included Andreessen Horowitz and Tiger Global — Waymo is the largest autonomous vehicle company in the world by commercial deployment. Tesla's Robotaxi plans are still theoretical. Waymo is operating.

The risks are structural. Autonomous vehicle insurance, regulatory approval city by city, and the capital requirements of scaling a hardware-intensive business are all significant. The 2027 window assumes continued commercial expansion and no major incidents.

The FreeMalta read: The commercial traction is real. The spinoff logic is sound. Alphabet will do this when it is ready, not before. 2027 is a reasonable estimate.